Macroeconomic factors influencing the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade
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Date
2020
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Izdevnieciba «Baltija Punlishing»
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to assess the relationship between Ukraine's foreign trade and its major
macroeconomic indicators in the context of deepening globalization processes and increasing dependence
of national economic development on exogenous determinants. In order to achieve this goal, the most
important factors of influence of macro level on the scale of foreign trade turnover have been selected, the
interval of observations has covered 1999-2018. Authors used the method of economic and mathematical
modeling based on the E-Views software. A multifactor regression model has been constructed, tested for
autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity; causal effects have been identified between foreign trade and the
main macroeconomic indicators of combinatorial nature (both exogenous and endogenous), Ukraine’s
foreign trade volumes has been forecasted up to 2023. Methodology. The study is based on the analyzed
macroeconomic indicators for the period of 1999-2018, which made it possible to select those that showed up
greatest impact on foreign trade. The results of the conducted modeling showed: high level achievement of
foreign trade dynamics of Ukraine over the mentioned years, which exceeded similar indicators of dynamics
of global trade; strong link between foreign trade, foreign direct investment and employment; revealing of a
significant influence upon foreign trade of innovative activity of national business in industry as a dominant
segment of the foreign sector of the country. As conclusions, the authors formulated a thesis on the need to
strengthen institutional support for innovation and investment activities of national enterprises as a driver for
scale-up and improvement of quality of Ukraine's trade relations with the entire world. It is determined that
the multiplicative interaction of innovation and investment would diversify and complicate the commodity
structure of exports, increase the level of its technological and innovative nature, and thus it is to allow to
get rid of the established attitude to Ukraine on the trading map of the world as a supplier of low-tech raw
materials. Practical implications. The main theoretical propositions, the authors’ conclusions presented in the
article, are supposed to form a methodological basis for expert evaluation in substantiating the priorities of
the state policy modernization regarding conditions and factors promoting the export-oriented sectors of
the national economy. Value/originality. Prospects for further research in this sphere may be to assumed onto
making an assess on risks (threats) and macroeconomic effects of foreign trade deterioration in the context
of declining economic activity regarding importing countries of their domestic products, especially in the EU
and the PRC, further weakening of external channels of investment and reducing the ability of businesses to
innovate in deepening recessionary processes on the global and national levels.
Description
Keywords
effect of foreign trade, foreign direct investment, innovation, export-import, trade policy, economic growth
Citation
Tkalenko S. Macroeconomic factors influencing the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade / Svitlana Tkalenko, Tetyana Melnyk, Liudmyla Kudyrko // Baltic Journal of Economic Studies. – 2020. – Vol. 6, № 3. – P. 143–155.