2022 рік

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    Employment in the coordinates of digital economy: current trends and foresight trajectories
    (Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана, 2022) Kolot, Anatolii; Колот, Анатолій Михайлович; Колот, Анатолий Михайлович; Herasymenko, Oksana; Герасименко, Оксана Олександрівна; Герасименко, Оксана Александровна; Shevchenko, Anna; Рябоконь, Іван Олександрович; Riabokon, Ivan; Рябоконь, Иван Александрович
    The article presents a scientific and applied argumentation of current trends and the authors’ vision of foresight trajectories of employment in the coordinates of digital economy. A critical synthesis of existing scientific research has been carried out, which has shown the dynamic scaling of digital economy in global economic space with profound multi-vector shifts in employment at various levels. The authors’ hypothesis that the scale and structure of employment would change intensively in both constructive and destructive dimensions under the influence of digitalization has been suggested and proved. The nature of constructivism and destructiveness of such changes has been disclosed. Trends in the level of employment in global coordinates, in Europe as a whole and in Ukraine have been analyzed with the use of the International Labour Organization’s information resource. It was clustered eight analyzed industries (in the field of high-tech manufacturing, high-tech services and certain export-oriented industries) using Kohonen self-organizing maps toolset, which allowed, based on a set of characteristic socio-labour and socio-economic indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period from 2013 to 2020, to analyze the state of development of each industry by the structure of employed and economic development, as well as to study trends in changes in state of industries in dynamics under conditions of digitalization. The analysis of the clustering results showed that despite very serious economic challenges and real problems in most industries, 2014 and 2020 can be considered the years of rapid development of digital technologies in high-tech industries, which were accompanied by a reduction in the number of employees and a decrease in salaries. The least digital transformations mainly concerned industrial sectors during the years of economic recovery of Ukraine in the period from 2015 to 2018. Results of the study of the impact of employment in high-tech industries and high-tech services sectors on the dynamics of gross domestic product and gross value added in the Ukrainian economy are presented. Results of forecasting these indicators with allocation of upper and lower confidence limits in a trend have been presented, which allowed to model optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios of the abovementioned macroeconomic indicators development. A hypothesis regarding increase in the probability of implementing an optimistic scenario of gross domestic product and gross value-added dynamics under conditions of digitalization by optimizing the number and the structure of those employed in the high-tech segment has been proposed and proved.
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    Enterprise strategies stratification based on the fuzzy matrix approach
    (Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана, 2022) Balan, Valerii
    A stratification model of enterprise strategies on the basis of tools of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy matrix analysis was developed. Classic methods of strategic diagnostics of the company, fuzzy methods of multi-criteria evaluation (Fuzzy Extension of Simplified Best-Worst Method (Fuzzy SBWM) and Fuzzy SAW) and fuzzy matrices were used to achieve the goals set. The classic Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) criteria were used to make a strategic choice. The developed model is based on defined term sets of expert linguistic assessments (8-level – for determining the importance of SWOT factors and 7-level – for evaluating strategic alternatives) with their subsequent conversion into fuzzy numbers with triangular membership functions. The Fuzzy SBWM was used to calculate the importance of SWOT factors for each area of analysis, and the Fuzzy SAW method was used to determine the fuzzy integral evaluations of strategic alternatives for these areas. Strategic alternatives were positioned in fuzzy matrices “O – T” and “S – W” using the α-section. Stratification of strategies is based on the superposition of fuzzy matrices and the application of production rules for the obtained integral fuzzy estimates of strategic alternatives. The framework has been developed in the Excel software application to carry out calculations according to this approach, which contains the following components: a block for entering linguistic expert information (for each direction of analysis and evaluation of strategic alternatives) and transforming these linguistic data into fuzzy numbers in a triangular form, a block for calculating factor weighting coefficients by best and worst approaches and their fuzzy integral values, a block for calculating fuzzy values of strategies in the directions of “opportunities-threats” and “strengths-weaknesses” at different values of α-section, a block of production rules for stratification of strategies to carry out calculations according to this approach. The methodical approach enables the top management of the enterprise to determine the weighting coefficients of the SWOT factors and identify the list of preferable strategic alternatives for implementation.
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    Intellectual capital management of the business community based on the neuro-fuzzy hybrid system
    (Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана, 2022) Kozlovskyi, Serhii; Syniehub, Petro; Kozlovskyi, Andrii; Lavrov, Ruslan
    The modern economy needs to address the issue of assessing intellectual capital as the basis for the development of market relations. The search for ways to solve this problem is possible based on the use of soft methods. The aim of the article is to develop a structural model for managing the intellectual capital of the business community based on an appropriate neuro-fuzzy system. Developed on the basis of soft computing methods, an innovative model for estimating intellectual capital of the business community is able to process “non-rigorous”, incomplete or distorted input data, work with qualitative concepts, ambiguous and uncertain statements, perform operations with weak formalized economic parameters. The experimental results obtained made it possible to formulate the methods for evaluating the intellectual capital of business communities (or other similar economic systems) characterized by fuzzy relations between input and output parameters, considerable difficulties in formalizing the factors of influence, capability of using linguistic experts’ statements for building an information and analytical system, etc. The developed hybrid neuro-fuzzy system “Board” for evaluating intellectual capital of a business community enables to process both quantitative and qualitative input data, and was built up according to the criteria of digital economy transformation projects.
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    Modeling national decarbonization capabilities using Kohonen maps
    (Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана, 2022) Zhytkevych, Olena; Brochado, Ana
    This study sought to develop a method to cluster countries based on their decarbonization capabilities and to determine how these nations’ reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has evolved over time. CO2 emissions clusters were identified using 11 indicators that measure both direct and indirect CO2 emissions, differentiating countries by their economic and population growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emission level. The panel data included 39 countries over the 10-year period of 2012–2021. The clustering was based on such type of neural networks as Kohonen self-organizing maps. This type of model facilitated grouping countries by similar decarbonization capabilities and economic development. The findings reveal that Norway and Sweden are the leaders in creating climate-resilient economies among the 39 countries analyzed. The analysis carried out can help other countries establish benchmarks for improving their own internal decarbonization activities based on leader nations’ strategies and borrowing their best practices for more efficient results. This study thus contributes to the literature regarding decarbonization activities by offering a multi-country dynamic clustering method using Kohonen maps.
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    Modeling the values of reflexive characteristics of agents within the management of herd behavior at the enterprises
    (Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана, 2022) Turlakova, Svitlana
    The central place at the formation of agent behavior at enterprises is the study of decision-making procedures and factors that mediate their choice. To determine the values of the reflexive characteristics of agents in the framework of management of herd behavior at enterprises a new approach is proposed based on questionnaire methods, the apparatus of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural network modeling. The determination of the values of reflexive characteristics of agents is carried out by the formation of fuzzy sets in the framework of the theory of L. Zadeh based on the results of a questionnaire of agents in selected areas. The agents are distributed by the Kohonen map into groups in order to numerically determine the values of their reflexive characteristics based on formed fuzzy sets. An important applied value in interpreting the results of the Kohonen SOM clustering is the ability to obtain representatives of specific clusters and average values of their characteristics, which are determined by the parameters of the network neurons and represent cluster centers. As a result of the clustering of input data vectors by directions of determining the values of the reflexive characteristics of agents, typical values of the required parameters are obtained for agents-representatives of clusters. The values of the reflexive characteristics of agents can be used to evaluate the results of decision-making by agents using the functions of reflexive choice to ensure effective management of manifestations of herd behavior at enterprises. The proposed modeling methodology will allow to identify the prerequisites for the manifestation of herd behavior at enterprises and the potential circle of agents for the formation of adequate managing actions in the process of ensuring effective management of herd behavior and achieving the goals of the enterprise.