Середньострокове бюджетне планування під час війни в Україні
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Date
2022-10-10
Journal Title
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Abstract
Систематизовано зміни у механізмі бюджетування щодо середньострокового бюджетного планування на макрорівні для держав з незвичайними станами, на прикладі бюджетування упродовж гарячої фази військових дій в Україні. Конкретизовано використання таких складників середньострокового бюджетного планування як підтримуючі показники середньострокового бюджету та надзвичайні термінові бюджети за напрямками, що відповідають незвичайним ситуаціям.
Запропоновано формули розрахунку бюджетної рамки на середньострокову перспективу для бюджету країни з надзвичайним станом. Розраховано прогнозний показник видатків з бюджету України на оборону на середньостроковий період до 2024 року.
Ukraine has received the status of a candidate for EU
membership, so it must use medium-term budget planning
in its public budgeting. However, medium-term planning of
the budget framework in Ukraine should take into account
special conditions: the consequences of the pandemic,
hostilities of varying intensity, concomitant inflation with
a fall in GDP, and other challenges that are difficult to anticipate. Active hostilities in 2022 are the biggest challenge
for the budgeting of today Ukraine. Therefore, managing
the achievement of goals through the use of medium-term
budgetary funds has expanded to also manage the consequences of a disaster through forced immediate response
and difficultly anticipated additional costs. The purpose of
the article is to model the medium-term framework of the
country’s budget based on the analysis of budgetary indicators when budgeting in unusual conditions, in particular,
forecasting defense spending from the budget of Ukraine
in the acute phase of a military invasion. Materials and
methods. When obtaining the results, the forecasts of the
Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and the Ministry of Finance
of Ukraine, data from the portal “Open Budget for Citizens”
of Ukraine were used. The methods of extrapolation of the
trend, weight coefficients, generalization and graphic were
applied. Results. The intensification of hostilities in 2022
on the territory of Ukraine entailed an immediate increase
in total budget expenditures in addition to certain previous unusual situations during the current need to build a
medium-term budget planning framework. An algorithm
is proposed for dividing the budgeting mechanism into a
supporting and emergency part in order to ensure obligations for budget funds in an acute emergency, in particular,
in a country with active hostilities in the defense phase on
the territory. The trend of predominance of expenditures
of the consolidated budget of Ukraine over revenues for
previous periods of unusual situations was calculated,
deviations were determined within 1-4% or more than
2% in the medium term. Based on the detected deviation,
a formula for calculating the medium-term total budgetary framework of the supporting medium-term budget of
the country was compiled. The calculation of emergency
temporary expenses for a separate area of the emergency
is formulated, which should be added to the mid-term
support budget. Budget expenditures for the defense of
Ukraine in the active phase of hostilities until 2024 are
predicted in the amount of more than 19% of actual GDP in
2021. Conclusions. Reliable compliance with the planned
medium-term fiscal, including the budgetary framework
for Ukraine, has limited possibilities in the coming years.
The calculated need for the emergency two-year budget
for defense alone shows spending in excess of half of the
desired redistribution of 32.1% of GDP through Ukraine’s
consolidated budget. Ukraine in the coming years is in
critical need of the help of the allies.
Description
Keywords
середньострокове бюджетне планування, публічне бюджетування, фіскальні рамки, макроекономічний прогноз, публічні фінанси, видатки на оборону, medium-term budget planning, public budgeting, fiscal framework, macroeconomic forecast, public finances, defense expenditures
Citation
Жибер Т. Середньострокове бюджетне планування під час війни в Україні [Electronic resource] / Тетяна Жибер // Business and Legislation : scientific analytical and practical journal / [board of ed.: Z. Nachkibia (chairman) et al.]. – Electronic text data. – Tbilisi, 2022. – Vol. 15, № 2 (special edition). – P. 43–50. – Mode of access: https://ojs.b-k.ge/index.php/bk/article/view/759/726. – Title from screen.