Макрофінансове планування та макрофінансова стабілізація: теорія та ризики в Україні
Date
2014
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Український інститут розвитку фондового ринку
Abstract
The paper found that the Ukrainian financial practice is still going through
the process of reforming public finance management and in connection with the
growing dynamism of economic and social processes taking place in society, rapid
fluctuations in domestic and foreign markets, the need for stabilizing social
development at the macro and micro financial system is growing role of macrofinancial
planning. Since it is one of the most important and complex functions
of financial management, it must continuously improve and rethink.
Studied the original basis macro-financial planning is proposed to define it as
a special sphere of financial activity of the state, which is associated with some
justification - making, the basic per- task is to identify possible imbalances in
society and through the financial mechanism of their elimination. Based on the
analysis of national practice forecasting macroeconomic indicators found not
realistic and the presence of significant defects, including lack formalization
macroeconomic planning process, lack of transparency of methods of forecasting
and planning of financial resources of the state for public discussion.
Studied western practice planning financial resources and the proposed
introduction Ukraine macro-financial planning based on independent
macroeconomic forecasting and estimating tax revenues based on the positive
experience of developed countries that appear on realistic expectations and
indicators will take informed political steps to stabilize public finances.
Revealed that hinder stabilization processes in Ukraine is a threat of internal
and external origin, should be taken into account in determining the financial
capacity of the state . Studies show that the main macro-financial risks are among the states of external factors: lack of external financing and restriction of access
to international capital markets, reducing international investment activity,
massive capital flight, lower prices on world energy markets, increase the cost
of foreign borrowing for Ukrainian corporations and others. Among internal risk
factors unbalance the financial system of Ukraine most significant importance:
devaluation, low credit capacity of the banking system, the spread of the insolvency
of the real economy, a significant increase in government deficits and more. These
risks are the result of the current macroeconomic and political destabilization and
have a direct impact on the solvency of the government performance and level of
financial security.
On the basis of scientific and pragmatic potential and positive experiences of
developed countries proposed for implementing countercyclical stabilization of
financial policy in Ukraine to develop clear not too hard to provide the necessary
flexibility, permanent and transparent fiscal rules under the World Heritage.
Description
Keywords
financial planning, macro-financial planning, macro-financial stabilization, fiscal rules, expert advice, risks, macroeconomic forecasting
Citation
Котіна Г. Макрофінансове планування та макрофінансова стабілізація: теорія та ризики в Україні / Ганна Котіна, Марина Степура // Ринок цінних паперів України. – 2014. – № 11–12. – С. 27–38.