Міжнародні кредитні інструменти у формуванні макрофінансової стабільності України
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2026
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Державний Науково-дослідний інститут інформатизації та моделювання економіки
Abstract
The subject of the study is the economic substance, structure and transmission channels through which international credit instruments influence Ukraine’s budget liquidity, balance of payments, international reserves, debt sustainability and credibility of macrofinancial policy in 2020–2025.The purpose of the article is to advance the theoretical and methodological foundations for evaluating international credit instruments and to substantiate their differentiated role in shaping Ukraine’s macrofinancial stability, taking into account maturity, concessionality, predictability, conditionality and the source of repayment.Research methods. The study applies systemic and institutional analysis, historical and logical periodisation, structural and dynamic comparison, ratio analysis, tabular systematisation, expert scoring and economic and mathematical modelling of the stabilisation quality of international credit instruments.Results of work. International credit instruments are conceptualised as a multi–channel macrofinancial stabilisation architecture combining fiscal–liquidity, balance–of–payments, reserve and exchange–rate, institutional–anchor and debt–structure channels. Five stages in the evolution of international lending to Ukraine in 2020–2025 are distinguished. The transition from emergency lending to programme–based, reform–linked and revenue–backed financing is shown to have shifted the focus from gross inflow volumes to the quality of liabilities. Between 2022 and 2025, external financing of the state budget increased from USD 32.1 billion to USD 52.4 billion, while international reserves rose from USD 28.5 billion to USD 57.3 billion. An original stabilisation quality coefficient is proposed and applied to compare International Monetary Fund programmes, European Union macro–financial assistance, the Ukraine Facility, World Bank mechanisms and Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration loans.Field of application of the results. The proposed approach may be used by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, public financial control bodies, international partners and research institutions in designing a medium–term external financing strategy, assessing debt risks and selecting an optimal mix of credit and grant resources.Conclusions. International lending has become a system–forming component of Ukraine’s macrofinancial stability. Its effectiveness depends on the regularity of disbursements, concessional terms, repayment horizons, catalytic capacity and institutional impact. Policy should move from maximising gross borrowing volumes to portfolio management based on stabilisation quality, direct budget burden and contribution to economic recovery.
Description
Keywords
international credit instruments, macrofinancial stability, external financing, international reserves, budget deficit, debt sustainability, International Monetary Fund, macro–financial assistance, Ukraine Facility, Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration
Citation
Рудан В. Я. Міжнародні кредитні інструменти у формуванні макрофінансової стабільності України / Рудан В. Я., Славкова А. А. // Формування ринкових відносин в Україні : зб. наук. пр. / Наук.-дослід. Ін-т інформатизації та моделювання економіки ; [редкол.: Студінська Г. Я. (голов. наук. ред.) та ін.]. – Київ, 2026. – № 5. – С. 17–29.