Digital imperative and innovations in international trade
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Date
2024
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана
Abstract
The article analyzes the transformation of the country’s foreign trade as a manifestation of the digital imperative. It examines the impact of digitalization and innovation on the structure of goods and services exports. Based on a correlation analysis, 15 global digital indices were compared, substantiating the choice of the Global Innovation Index for further calculations. Based on indicators of digitalization, macroeconomics and foreign trade, a cluster analysis was performed using self-organizing maps to determine the positions of countries in the global economy during 2011–2023, as well as their common characteristics. In particular, clustering allowed to identify a group of countries similar to Ukraine in the set of selected characteristics. This made it possible to create a database for constructing models to forecast export dynamics of the countries of this cluster, including Ukraine. The findings suggest that digital and macroeconomic factors jointly influence the structure of international trade. However, traditional regression models only partially explain the dynamics of foreign trade indicators (the share of goods exports and the share of services exports), reflecting their limited ability to capture nonlinear interactions between digital and macroeconomic variables. In contrast, neural network models demonstrate higher predictive accuracy and reveal more complex relationships between innovation, digitalization, and trade structure, underscoring the advantages of machine-learning approaches for analyzing modern trade systems.
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Keywords
international trade, digitalization, innovation, Global Innovation Index, digital economy, cluster analysis, neural network
Citation
Osadchuk V. Digital imperative and innovations in international trade / Valeriia Osadchuk, Olha Yatsenkо, Oleksandr Iatsenko // Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics : scientific journal / Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman ; [ed. board: A. Matviychuk (ed.) et al.]. – Kyiv : KNEU, 2024. – № 13. – P. 25–58.